6th in the Bundesliga, advanced quite luckily in the DFB-Pokal, but at least reached the latter stages of the Champions League this year. Nonetheless, most of the fans are tired of the football that is being played. Slow, shy, no real playing philosophy and all of that with the second most expensive squad in the Bundesliga. And Jude Bellingham is leaving as well. How can Dortmund get back on track?
Where does Dortmund stand?
It’s not required to have multiple years of experience in squad planing or performance analyses in order to identify that Dortmund’s paying their players way too much in salaries for the results that they deliver. Which is not even the player’s fault, but rather the board and recruitment team should be taken responsible for this mismanagement. And this year even the coach is responsible to a quite large extend.
When taking a closer look at the squad and it’s main assets you would expect the club to identify themselves through high pressing, counter-attacks and overall quick, attractive, football. However, the opposite is the case.
Edin Terzic is currently trying to implement a possession-based team with two quick forwards out wide and one target-man upfront in a 4–2–3–1 shape.
Obviously, Dortmund’s been left more than just shocked at the start of the season when their just recently signed Haaland-Replacement Sebastien Haller had been diagnosed with testicular cancer and was out for an undefined time. Whatsoever, when analysing Dortmund’s matches throughout the season it was quite easy to spot that their main issue wasn’t the missing of a quality striker, better said target-man. Most of the player’s where either misprofiled or didn’t fit into the desired tactical approach. Although no fan, if even analyst, does certainly know what the playing philosophy is.
In pre-season the coaching staff set a focus on combinational play, third-man-movement and transition-games. But these principles weren’t really noticeable on the pitch and so weren’t any particular patterns in certain phases of the game. To be fair, there were a few interesting ideas from Terzic with for example a 3–6–1 shape against Hertha BSC or a 3–5–2 set-up in their match against Freiburg. In the end, Dortmund even finally tried a three at the back with Karim Adeyemi more centrally hence but failed miserably. Why? Because in end it matters how you play football out of a certain shape/set-up and not where players are being put at on the tactical board. Most of the players were in addition used where they couldn’t play out their strengths, while their weaknesses became more visible.
Main Assets
In the end it’s a players and not coaches game. Coaches should be trying to help players to express themselves on the pitch and develop a functional team. In order to get the best out of the team, it should be build around ‘the main assets’, better said best players and in which situations on the pitch they can excel to the highest amount.
1. Nico Schlotterbeck
Nico Schlotterbeck was signed just last summer for a fee over €20m, which should be considered as a real bargain in my personal opinion. The left-footed central-defender is one of the most promising players in his position in the world and is massively overhated in public opinion due to his “heroic style of play” and a few easy, goal-leading, errors shortly before or even at the World Cup.
Schlotterbeck is outstandingly good at reading the game, which enables him to be progress quick and impactful from the back or intercept passes. Given his solid pace and bravery in addition, he’s tough to beat in 1vs1 duels. He still has flaws in his risk-management, defensive positioning in structure and composure over all. Given his weaknesses in defending out of structure and strengths in ball progression plus intercepting, he should be deployed as a left-halfback in a 3atb.
2. Niclas Süle
Just as Schlotterbeck, Süle was signed last summer on a heatedly discussed free transfer from Bayern Munich and was expected to take responsibility at Dortmund. While he hasn’t necessarily disappointed, just like Schlotterbeck, there’s still feeling that his value to the team could be significantly higher based on his potential.
Niclas Süle is a brilliant technician, who’s unlikely to lose composure under any sort of pressure. His ball distribution and dribbling are very strong for a player of his physique. In contrasty to Schlotterbeck he’s not great at pushing out of his line and prefers to solve defensive situations through smart positioning or 1vs1 defending. While’s hard to beat in tight spaces, he lacks agility and acceleration for defending into depth.
Given his brilliant ball-playing ability, deficits in defending into depth and tendency to get forward he would also give a brilliant right half-defender.
3. Giovanni Reyna
One of the most intelligent as technically gifted U21 in the world, who’s unfortunately had a terrible streak of injuries over the past year. Nonetheless, he’s now back, fit and ready to help Dortmund. And he’s gotten the quality already to be a real difference-maker.
The American is absolutely brilliant at receiving between lines, carrying the ball over longer distances, while also offering verticality and depth in his passing-game. In addition, he’s also real threat from distance and can finish goal-opportunities by himself thanks to his outstanding ball-striking and composure. Reyna can play in any attacking position, while he’s deployed the best in the left half-space with the freedom to come deeper while also being considerably close to the opponent's goal. In short, he’s a left attacking midfielder.
4. Donyell Malen
Many of you will be surprised that I have listed Donyell Malen as one of Dortmund’s main assets. But I’m serious, as he’s an incredibly exciting skillset to offer, which just only has been used completely wrong so far and hence ruined the player’s confidence completely.
While Malen wasn’t combinable with Erling Haaland last season and as a result been moved out wide, he’s now just being used completely wrong without an excuce. If you have worked together with strikers as a coach, you know how attached their confidence is to the amount of goals they score. And as soon as their ego drops by a larger amount, the forwards will behave way too selfish and appear toxic to the rest of the team. They start to think more actively on the pitch, which results in losing composure and certain instincts. They’ll try to somehow ‘force the ball into the net’ and the longer it takes the striker to score, the worse it gets. And Donyell Malen is in the trenches of his confidence and looks absolutely horrible.
Malen is one of the fastest players on the first meters in the entire league, while also offering close ball-control, agility, body strength and an outstanding shooting technique. Even his movement off the ball is fantastic if you look at his time at PSV. The Dutch loves to either get in behind from wider positions or operate in the 10 space. At best, he’s used as a second left striker in a two-partnership.
5. Sebastien Haller
Signed last summer in order to replace Haaland and deliver goals, as box presence. Unfortunately Haller couldn’t leave his mark on the pitch due to being diagnosed with cancer. But luckily his comeback is imminent and Dortmund should build their team around him.
Although I would have prefered Sasa Kalajdzic last summer, as he’s more confident at dropping into midfield, holding-up and eventually creating, Haller is ‘just’ holding-up close to the box and tends to fashion out chances for himself. He’s not the optimal fit for a two-striker partner-ship and better off as a lone-striker with three players behind him, but this can be worked out and shouldn’t be a major issue. As hinted, Haller’s main qualities are holding up the ball and setting it or simply scoring in the box.
Other Assets
Well, there are a few other players that I haven’t mentioned and won’t go into detail. First of all, I expect Jude Bellingham to leave and hence won’t list him as one. Same goes for Moukoko, unfortunately. Marco Reus is too old and injury prone to build a squad around. Julian Brandt could’ve been listed, but is quite similar to Reyna and doesn’t require further explanation. Bynoe-Gittens isn’t good enough yet to be considered a main-asset, but will be taking a important role ‘in rotation’ or flexibility of systems on the wing or half-space-carrying-role.
Conclusion:
- Given the CB-Situation, a three at the back should be Dortmund’s main system.
- The CCB should offer great defending into depth
- Reyna needs to be accompanied by an intense, defensive, midfielder
- Malen needs to play in the left half-space with the freedom to go in behind
- Haller is more of a lone striker, who needs players to get behind around him
In theory, Bellingham would be the perfect player next to Reyna has he offers high intensity, runs in behind, defensive involvement and box presence all at once. But he’ll be gone unfortunately, which at least leaves us with more money.
Rest of the squad in the desired shape
I don’t think it requires any explanation for the missing players, who I would sell in the best case. They simply do not fit the set-up, or are way too expensive for the quality they offer.
Profiles To Sign
The most interesting part of this entire blog. Yes, I know. Let’s look at the profiles.
- Starter with high Pace CCB
- High-Quality Allrounder Defender 4, who would also be comfortable in all roles.
- Wing-Back Left and Right Starter with great passing/crossing, solid pace and certain qualities in tight spaces
- Deep-Lying Playmaker (Rotation/Talent) Passing, Intelligence
- Box-To-Box Starter with high Work-Rate, Goal-Threat, Tactical Intelligence
- Winger Rotation/Starter who’s strong in ball progression
Recommendations
Starter with high Pace CCB:
Options: Maxence Lacroix, Philipp Lienhart, Josip Sutalo, Kevin Danso
-> Josip Sutalo most realistic with best value, Lacroix highest potential + current ability, Lienhart lowest risk, Kevin Danso in range
Allrounder CCB:
Options: Waldemar Anton, Debast
- > Debast has more quality/potential, while Anton would be more contend with the role of a back-up, reliable and flexibel. Especially if Stutgart get relegated with interesting market-opportunity.
Wing-Back Left:
Options: Bensebaini (close to be signed), Borna Sosa, Grimaldo, Ian Maatsen, Kerkez
- > Bensebaini likely to be signed, Sosa/Grimaldo too expensive in salary, Maatsen prolly stay in the PL, Kerkez more of a talent
Wingback Right:
Options: Gusto, Baku, Joao Mario, Dedic, Juranovic, Ryerson, Fresnada
- > Gusto/Baku unrealistic, Mario alright, Dedic interesting but doubts over CA, Juranovic inflated value, Ryerson more of an Allrounder, Fresnada by far best option
Deep-Lying Playmaker:
Options: Ivan Ilić, Tyler Morton, Hugo Larsson
- > Lack of options (as far as I can tell), personal favourite might be Tyler Morton. I don’t want to suggest players I don’t like or have barely followed
Box-To-Box:
Options: Van De Beek, Stach, Mainoo
-> Both options would fit perfectly into the system and offer high quality. Especially VDB could be an interesting market opportunity. Mainoo more of a prospect close to the first eleven, but likely to stay at United.
Winger:
Options: Ilias Akhomach, Julien Duranville, Rayan Cherki, Joel Ndala, Isaac Babadi, Johan Bakayoko, Roony Bardghji, Shola Shoretire
- > Aside from Cherki, all of these players are talents who are close to the first eleven and would be great for rotation as they can play a bit more centrally as out wide. Akhomach could be on the market, just as Duranville. Rest has to be seen. Duranville and Akhomach have the best value at the moment.
Possible Squad and Thoughts
No matter how I design the squad, I’m not happy on the first sight as there’s a visible drop in quality and potential. Especially losing Moukoko on a free hurts a lot. Maybe another (very talented) B2B like Ugochukwu could raise the ceiling of the team, but overall I remain unhappy as the squad had such a promising future three-four years ago.
But what I would be happy about is that it would be possible to follow a clear playing perspective with this team, while still having some flexibilty (two insane winger talents, who can play on either flank) and lowering the wage-bill by a serious amount. It’s a step back, definitely, but in a healthy manner. Especially the back-line could still compete with the best in Europe and the front three and a half would function very well together, although there’s a lot of risk in it.
What I can not emphasise enough is everyone who’s charge, from head-coach to sporting director, should be on the same line as everyone else. No sporting director should sign a player due to his potential and marketing potential, although there’s no interest from the coaches point of view to have this sort of player type. If there’s no commitment from each party to the project, there’s a lot of potential as quality going for waste. Communication, debating, having diverse opinions from outbiased outsiders and especially trust is key to a successful project. Above all is one plan and philosophy that everyone has to follow, with no exception. Union Berlin’s squad is worth €400m less in market-value and is paying €100M less than Dortmund in salaries throughout the year reportedly. And why do they have a better connection with their fans right now and a functional team? Because everyone in charge sticks together, follows a clear philosophy and there’s a real, sustainable, tactical plan/approach.
I’m not really happy and kinda disappointed with the result of this analysis, but as hinted this mainly due to BVB having wasted so much potential in the past and being forced to take a major step backwards despite earning so much money through Bellingham.
