In the first part of this mini-series, we set certain benchmarks for the new squad and determined a philosophy by which we are looking for new arrivals. Part 2 will deal with realistic new arrivals and alternatives. Those who have not yet read Part 1 should do so beforehand.
In the following, we will discuss possible solutions for each position I have appointed and weigh them up on the basis of game-related, as well as financial, factors. The point: “Realism” will not be neglected either. It makes sense for the club to sign a German player in a 50:50 decision in order to increase identification. Or a well-known player from the Bundesliga. This is a point that has not always worked for BVB and is often criticised, quite rightly.
Accordingly, some candidates, or even decisions, will also be justified by this factor. Likewise, some players will be mentioned who are fundamentally extremely unrealistic, but will nevertheless be taken up in order to enable “outside-the-box thinking”.
In order not to go beyond the scope of this already far too long article, I will not weigh up all names in detail per position, but will mention or list alternatives without comment as for further discussion.
Left-backs:
Raphael Guerreiro and Nico Schulz have both left the club in my approach. So you need two left-backs. Both ready for the starting eleven.
Basically, for a flexible squad that suits Rose, I would sign two different types of wing-back players. A “wing-back”, who plays intensively up and down the line, but also a somewhat more “conservative”, defensively oriented” one, who can at best also be used in the central defence of a three-man chain.
First of all, an overview of the candidates:
To cut to the chase: My desired solution is David Raum + Ramy Bensebaini. But that won’t be possible this summer, so I have an exciting approach.
Little needs to be explained about Bensebaini. He is a flexible defensive player, experienced his best time under Marco Rose in Gladbach and should cost a transfer fee of less than €15M with 12 months remaining on his contract. With regard to the expensive alternatives such as Melvin Bard, Aaron Hickey, Ricardo Calafiori or the cheap but not so high-quality Marcel Halstenberg and Viktor Kristiansen, the decision is easy.
The type of “wingback with high intensity” would be best with David Raum, who is already being concretely linked with BVB in the media. However, only for 2023, when his exit clause can be activated. Since the alternatives would all mean a long-term million package and a lack of perspective for Tom Rothe from 23/24, I have somewhat surprisingly opted for a loan of Ryan Sessegnon. At 21, the Englishman is still extremely young, strong, athletic, intense and already made a promising impression at Hoffenheim last season.
He is on the outside at Spurs and should not be averse to a move to Dortmund. It would certainly not be the highest quality approach, but a more than promising good transitional solution until 2023 David Raum can be signed.
Right centre-back:
Another player is needed at the right centre-back position after the departures of Emre Can, Manuel Akanji and Marin Pongracic. Niclas Süle is absolutely set here, but especially with a view to several changes in the systems (3 or 4-back), a playful, fast-paced and cost-effective player should be signed here.
The candidates:
Tiago Djalo would be the highest quality solution here. Geertruida is an extremely flexible young Dutchman who could also play as a 6 or right-back. Josip Sutalo is currently one of the most interesting right-sided centre-backs on the market, but he is likely to be quite expensive. Mavropanos is playing an extremely interesting season and would fit Rose with his profile — but would be no one for the back four. Pieper would be the emergency plan here, free of a transfer fee. But the perfect solution is obvious:
Omeragic has already been a more or less regular player in the first team of Zurich for 3 years and is convincing. The Swiss, who is represented by the same consulting firm as Gregor Kobel, also has only 12 months remaining on his contract. In addition, he is also an excellent match for BVB in terms of play. The U21 national player of Switzerland impresses with an extremely clean basic technique, calmness and solid speed. Defensively, he could still improve and stabilise, but he can be used in a three-man or four-man defence. If necessary, he could also play as an RV in a back four. With his contract situation, a transfer would be unbeatable in terms of cost-benefit potential. I would be very surprised if Omeragic costs more than €10M. The tendency is towards just over 5. The salary would also be limited. In addition, he has further potential, which could make him a regular player here in the long term.
Right-back:
Personally, I assume that Meunier and Wolf will stay. With Morey in the back, another player here would actually be too much, but: What if Morey signals clear problems in preparation? What if, contrary to my expectations, Meunier or Wolf receive a lucrative offer? At best, we also need a wingback with offensive qualities. A lot of forward movement, high intensity and, at best, physically well-developed.
Then I would look at the following alternatives.
There is really only one candidate for me here: Djed Spence. The Englishman is one of the absolute “breakout stars” in England and will be allowed to transfer this summer for just under €15M. He convinces with his high intensity, dribbling strength, physicality and offensive drive. The Englishman would be the ideal track player with potential for more.
The probability of getting more money for Spence in the future than we paid would be enormously high. I am completely convinced of the player and would love to see him under Marco Rose in a 3–5–2. As a style-like alternative, there would be Wilfried Singo. Sergino Dest could come on the market should Barcelona strengthen again at RV. Ridle Baku is the “German variant”. Dalot was already being considered last summer. He only has a contract until 2023 and seems to have no future at Manchester United either. In the end, I still clearly prefer Djed Spence, even if there is some risk involved in the transfer.
Central defensive midfield
With Axel Witsel and Emre Can, two players are leaving the club in the summer. Thomas Delaney already left last summer. BVB therefore lacks a clear 6, but above all another ball-winning 8 who can play a little higher. The only real ball winner in the current team is Jude Bellingham. The alternatives behind him are rare as far as this skillset is concerned. Accordingly, next summer we will need a clear 6 with strategic skills but still a decent physical as well as athletic profile. For our certain philosophy and the kind of football Rose wants to play, we need at best another box-to-box player who wins a lot of balls and has a strong switching game.
My dream solution for the 6 would actually be Boubacar Kamara, who is available on a free transfer and is less about intensity but more about positional play and strategic skills. Even if he doesn’t completely fit the profile we are looking for, his quality would be so high that we have to discuss him in these circumstances. Unfortunately, he is likely to move to Spain, to Atletico Madrid.
The second dream solution would be Mo Camara from RB Salzburg. The Malian-born midfielder has an incredibly high intensity and work rate in his game. He also makes few mistakes, is technically sound and has already successfully taken on a leadership role in a pressing and switching system.
However, I assume he will receive offers from the absolute top teams. And on top of that: RB Salzburg will probably not want to give the player to us after the Adeyemi saga. I hope I’m wrong though. Camara would be my dream solution here.
As an alternative to Camara, I see Ibrahim Sangare from PSV Eindhoven as realistic. Currently probably the individually strongest player in the Netherlands and with a very similar profile to Mo Camara. In terms of quality, he is about half or even a whole class below Camara, but can probably be had for less than €25M. For €15-€20M something should be possible. In contrast to Camara, Sangare brings more strategic skills and line-breaking passes. Camara drives the ball more on the dribble. But that’s also completely okay.
The Box-To-Box Player
This role tends to require a role player rather than a difference player. At best, someone from the Bundesliga who is inexpensive and does his job in the rotation. Accordingly, my breakdown is also primarily limited to the Bundesliga, as these types of transfers will continue to be part of the philosophy. We will not only sign foreign players. And here, something from the league offers itself best.
It’s totally difficult for me to weigh it up. Xaver Schlager has the highest quality, only has a contract until 2023, Marco Rose is a “huge fan”, but Schlager should still be quite expensive. In addition, the Austrian emphasised that he would like to play for Arsenal in the future. The switch would be a great fit this summer. Likewise, Schlager seems to have a somewhat differentiated view of the “Corona” issue, a question of how far the player would then be tenable for the fans.
Ellyes Skhiri and Salih Özcan of Cologne both have contracts until 2023 and would be an ideal fit. Financially, the players should be available for under €15M and therefore more than affordable. While I tend to think Skhiri is a bit better in terms of quality, he is again more injury prone than Özcan. In the end, I would find both of them good for this role.
Anton Stach would be a small risk transfer here, but one that is typical of BVB. I think a lot of Stach. High intensity, work rate, but still technically fine and with promising stature. In addition, he can be used flexibly and still has upward potential. Also a German national player. Point identification and the club’s goal to be well represented at the DFB.
In terms of play and the planned philosophy, everything speaks for Stach, but the question remains: What does he cost? According to Stach and Heidel, a transfer in the summer is out of the question. A statement to drive up the price, or actually an intelligent career plan? Both are possible. My tendency: Stach is only available for €25M, which would be an immoral sum for Mainz. Anything below/around €20M I would do.
In the end, I opt for Skhiri here, as there is already a good source on these and I want to keep the blog as realistic as possible.
Striker
There needs to be a Haaland replacement. And finding one is not going to be that easy. Let alone financing an adequate replacement after all the previous transfers. Just consider that one or two departures could fail. But we will definitely need a striker alongside Adeyemi, regardless of any departures. Accordingly, I have a flexible solution here, which I find really exciting.
First the candidates:
The story is quickly told: Sebastien Haller would be fantastic, but is likely to be too expensive at €30M+ upwards. I think Hugo Ekitike is great, but a €25M+ transfer fee will probably be necessary, which I think is just too risky after half a strong season with the given circumstances that Haaland has to be replaced. Plus a serious muscle injury. Basically, however, an extremely exciting player. I think a lot of Kalajdzic, but the price of €20M would be clearly too much. There are also slight doubts about the quality, which I can understand. I would support the solution, but I am not 100% convinced either. Even though a big fan and think he is criticised too much. But his injury history alone almost rules out the transfer — unfortunately.
Kelechi Iheanacho may leave Leicester in the summer and is an excellent striker in terms of play. With his attitude against the ball and experience already gained internationally, he would be a super fit. In addition, he would complement Malen/Adeyemi perfectly with his playing skills. The problem: the salary. Established Premier League players usually already receive salaries that are not affordable for BVB or are not in proportion to the expected performance. A big question mark, but also a potentially good fit.
Last but not least: Armando Broja, and I’m probably a little surprised for many people that I’m going to go with him. Broja is a mentality monster who is nevertheless physically and athletically convincing. In addition, he has a great basic technique and finishing qualities. Yes, his goal output at Southampton, a rather weak team in the PL, is expandable. The fact that guaranteed goals are needed after a Haaland departure invalidates this counter-argument even less. However: Broja should be available on loan with KO and fits in perfectly in terms of play. Chelsea plan to use Havertz as a striker and will either let Lukaku go and get an expensive replacement, or keep Lukaku. There is no room for Broja and he could play Champions League here. His salary should also be affordable. With an option to buy, the risk is also greatly reduced. But there is one catch: Chelsea would insist on a 99.99% buy-back option, as they did with Tammy Abraham. But since I think that Broja would be available for max. €35M KO, I would find the buy-back clause at plus €80M justifiable. That’s roughly how the deal is structured for Tammy Abraham as well.
Again about Broja: I think that players from the Premier League do easier in the Bundesliga. Broja is really an excellent fit in terms of player type and you could develop the player. Next season, the KO could, but doesn’t have to, be drawn first. Since there is no 1A alternative either, I think this solution is best. I definitely trust him to score 15+ goals in the league!
The dribbler
Yes, BVB misses dribblers. But here’s the question: will BVB need them so badly in a switching and pressing system? The answer is: yes, yes, having them as another option would be important. With regards to a one-two of Malen/Adeyemi + X, I don’t see a place for such a player in the basic philosophy. But you definitely need another difference player, which allows even more options. Actually for the starting eleven, but that before from: Or a risky solution with a lot of talent. The candidates:
Since I mainly expect a 3–5–2 or 4–4–2 diamond next season, I used players here who are flexible. Either as 8th/10th, wingback or striker. One is more suitable than the other, without question. I find Sinisterra and Akhomach particularly interesting.
Luis Sinisterra is probably the highest quality winger you can sign in the summer. Affordable, high basic level, defensively committed and with a difference factor. He can also be used in attacking midfield and has a lot of orientation in the half-space. Offensively he would complement well with Adeyemi or Malen, who like to move out to the wings to be a threat in depth. Sinisterra could move in successively and occupy the central half lane. This interplay also works wonderfully with Gio Reyna or Bynoe-Gittens, without changing the structure/philosophy much. Accordingly, I prefer Sinisterra as the desired solution.
It should be said that BVB would be his peak. I can’t see him developing much more and he might not get beyond the role of a good Thorgan 19/20 hazards in the end. So a solid regular who makes the difference at times but you often get annoyed or call for a talented youth player instead of him. Basically, I see Sinisterra rather at a club one level below, like Nice or Leverkusen — to which there were also rumours. But there are simply no better alternatives. Madueke is too expensive, too often injured and probably on his way to England.
A solution with talent and risk would be Ilias Akhomach from Barcelona, who only has a contract until 2023. His biggest plus: left-footed. Something I totally miss at BVB. Plus a potential that would allow him to be world class one day. I see him as by far the strongest on the outside in a 4–3–3, but I would also trust him to play the role described above. The question is: Do we want another talent? And does Akhomach want to move at all? The competition at Barca is great and will only get greater if Dembele stays. In addition, “La Masia” graduates also like to stay at the club because of their incredibly high level of identification, because they love it so much.
In the end, I’ll go with Sinisterra, even if I find this transfer more unrealistically final than the other transfers I’ve listed in this blog.
With the departure of Julian Brandt, the injury-proneness of Gio Reyna and the very old age of Marco Reus, it could actually do with another playmaker. In addition, after the departures of Brandt and Guerreiro, a strong standard shooter is also missing. A creative player from the 8 or 10, possibly even for a possible double 6 instead of Dahoud, would be an advantage. There is an excellent candidate here, even if you then run the risk of overcrowding the squad.
My preferred transfer would be Orkun Kökçü from Feyenoord. One of the best players in the Netherlands and covers all the attributes mentioned above. Extremely creative, two-footed, dynamic, aggressive, flexible (10, 8 or double 6) and with great standards. He would fit in great and the type of player is basically needed. Only my feeling is that the squad would be too full with him. On the other hand, he has several quite injury-prone players (Reyna, Reus) ahead of him and I don’t expect anything from Göktan Gürpüz next season. In addition, the transfer would be quite costly. It is also questionable whether he would want to compete with Reyna, Reus and, indirectly, Bellingham — who can also play at a higher level — if he had a regular place elsewhere. Cost? I would estimate about €25M. Tending towards less, but that would still be steep.
As alternatives, I have chosen extremely talented players who would be at a different level, but with more potential. Arda Güler is actually not intense enough in his game for Rose, but would be an excellent conductor with incredibly high potential. He has everything for the top. Zakharayan could also be seen as a dribbler, brings the intensity and creativity. He also has potential. He also has, I think and unfortunately without a source, an exit clause of €15M-€25M. If this is less than €20M, it would be lucrative. Jobe Bellingham would of course be an excellent story, but still too far away from the first team in terms of play. That would take another year. Gharbi would be a good mix, incredibly talented and fleet-footed OM/winger, who could even be had on loan. Could be a good compromise. For that though, this one is not as intense against the ball as one would like. Ilkhan can also play on the wings, but would be a perspective player. He is also not as intense as one would wish — even if he is better than Güler, for example. With a contract until 2023, he is probably also affordable and there is already a source who says we are interested.
The dream would be Kökcü, in the end I’ll go with Jobe Bellingham: also because it’s the most realistic. That way, we wouldn’t overload the squad, as Jobe could play in the U23s. A similar path to Abdoulaye Kamara, for example.
Conclusion:
Financially feasible, based on a clear playing philosophy and also realistic in my opinion. I am not satisfied with a few points, such as the wingers or the “creator”. Broja in the forward line also tends to be too thin as a Haaland replacement, but I have already explained that in more detail. But especially the solution on LV doesn’t convince me completely, but with regard to space 2023 it is the best. In an “emergency” Bensebaini can still play there or you can play a back four. Then you automatically have one more offensive player.
Effective:
4 key players
14 regular players
6 rotation players
9 prospects, many of whom are also permanent members of the U23 squad.
If you count Rothe, Kamara, Gittens, Bellingham and Fink as the only prospects who can realistically get playing time, you have a 27-man squad. That would be a good squad size, especially considering that Jobe, Fink and Rothe can still easily play U23 for their development.
This is how the squad would look in 3–5–2:
I would very much like to add Kökcü, if that’s financially possible. Then I would be extremely satisfied. Especially when you often play a four-man backfield and Reus/Reyna are out, this transfer would perfect the squad within the bounds of possibility.
The estimated (!!!) income and expenditure*:
*I am aware that with income, as with expenditure, there are also levies/supplementary payments. I am also aware that the book value etc. plays a role. I am also aware that redemptions can also be paid or received in instalments over a period of years. This is an approximate guideline and is intended more as an overview than as an actual investment calculation.
Revenue:
Erling Haaland (75M, 8M salary)
Manuel Akanji (25M, 5M salary)
Roman Bürki (0M, 5M salary)
Reinier (0M, 3M salary)
Axel Witsel (0M, 8M salary)
Thorgan Hazard (15M, 5M salary)
Julian Brandt (15M, 6M salary)
Emre Can (15M, 8M salary)
Nico Schulz (0M, 5M salary)
Raphael Guerreiro (25M, 6M salary)
Marin Pongracic (0M, 3M salary)
Dan-Axel Zagadou (0M, 2M salary)(Thomas Meunier (8M, 7M Gehalt)
> 170+8 Mio Ablöse, 64+7 Mio Gehalt
Ausgaben:
Ryan Sessegnon (€5M Leihgebühr, 3M Gehalt)
Ramy Bensebaini (€12M, 4M Gehalt)
Nico Schlotterbeck (€20M, €5M Gehalt)
Niclas Süle (€8M Signing Fee, €8M Gehalt
Ibrahim Sangare (€20M, 3,5MGehalt)
Ellyes Skhiri (12M, 3,5M Gehalt)
Luis Sinisterra (€20M, €3,5M Gehalt)
Jobe Bellingham (€10M, 0,5M Gehalt)
Karim Adeyemi (€35M, 6M Gehalt)
Armando Broja (€8M Leihgebühr, 4M Gehalt)
(Djed Spence (€15M Ablöse, €3,5M Gehalt)
> 165+ 15 Mio Ablöse, 41 + 3,5 Mio Gehalt
