Every year again and at least 40 times a year from me: The squad planning of the glorious BVB. This year in particular should be exciting, as the coffers are a little fuller and the will for a real upheaval has been recognised. But: not everything will work out. An overview and approaches.
What does BVB need?
Before we deal with who BVB should sign or give away, we must first clarify what it needs. First and foremost: an identity. In order to develop this successfully, it needs competence, continuity, capital and a clear plan.
Marco Rose, Edin Terzic and Sebastian Kehl provide competence. Continuity must be made possible for those responsible and the team through the patience of the fans. Capital can be provided in the summer. BVB’s finances do not allow for a complete upheaval with several 50 million + packages, but they do offer a decent amount of leeway. Especially with sales.
In order to develop this continuity successfully, a clear (playing) philosophy is also needed. Do you want to win titles directly, or do you want to build something sustainable? Do you want to play pressing and switching football or possession football? The squad must be aligned with these two “key parameters”. The answer to the above questions should, in my opinion, be: Something sustainable and with pressing and switching football. That’s what Marco Rose stands for and that’s actually what Borussia Dortmund stands for as well.
With whom can BVB plan?
Before you can give a final answer to this question with names, you first have to determine which attributes to look for in order to develop your planned identity:
General:
- High work ethic and willingness to sacrifice.
- High natural fitness
- Professional work attitude
- Healthy basic aggressiveness, intensity and tempo
- High level of identification
- Experience in pressing and transitioning football
Currently, the lack of dynamism, intensity and tactical reliability is particularly noticeable. It looks as if a team with individual players is playing in a system for which they were not made and which costs so much to maintain as if they would consistently play convincingly for titles, if not win them. In addition, several players are overburdened with the required intensity, which primarily manifests itself in muscle injuries and tired performances. Absences cannot be compensated for adequately because there is no well-structured squad to do so. This must change. In the future, these basic attributes should play an important role in planning, in addition to sporting qualities and resale value.
The whole thing could be taken further for individual playing attributes for individual positions. Since this would go beyond the scope, I will build my argumentation for or against individual players accordingly and clarify what matters there for me.
More than foreseeable activities have already been factored in.
Who should BVB part with?
With regard to the contract situation, consideration must be made especially with the following players:
- Raphael Guerreiro
- Mo Dahoud
From a cost-benefit perspective, the following players are under close scrutiny:
- Nico Schulz
- Emre Can
- Thomas Meunier
- Julian Brandt
- Thorgan Hazard
- Marius Wolf
Raphael Guerreiro
One of the best left-backs in the world, probably the best player in the squad in terms of play, but still with clearly visible deficits. Lack of athleticism, high drop-out rates and defensively not worthy of a full-back. Raphael Guerreiro turns 29 this year and is expected to sign his last big contract with a more than lucrative salary.
The injuries become more rather than less with steady age and even more intense play, and the deficits cannot be worked on.
“Rapha” is not a player who belongs as a key player in a pressing and switching football construct. Aggressive pressing in particular requires players who can reliably implement this style of play. If only one of them misses out, the effort of the others is redundant and you run into a counterattack.
And Guerreiro is unfortunately a player who does not always reliably implement the instructions. He also lacks the basic attributes for an intensive pressing and switching system.
The still-28-year-old should also have a good market, which should bring in a promising transfer fee. Capital that BVB urgently needs.
Conclusion: Clear candidate for sale
Mo Dahoud
Like Guerreiro, one of the best players in the squad in terms of football, but also with slight — even if not glaring — deficits in terms of dynamism, intensity (over long distances), but above all consistency and tactical reliability. Dahoud leaves his position too often and thus poses huge problems for the “rest of the defence”. Particularly noticeable: the home game against Bayer 04 Leverkusen. And if Dahoud doesn’t get into the immediate counter-pressing on the first metres, he lacks speed over longer distances to win the ball back. On the 8, where he would be better off with his strengths and weaknesses, he also lacks a bit of athleticism. But above all: There are better alternatives who earn less than him. According to BILD, a source to be taken with a grain of salt, the 26-year-old earns just under €5M.
Basically, however, it can be said that Dahoud can play an important role as a flexible squad player and his differentiating factors. Moreover, he at least has the intrinsic motivation for pressing and is handy on the first metres. It’s just not the 1A solution.
With regard to the contract situation, a decision has to be made this summer. A separation for a transfer fee this summer would not be wrong, but with regard to the other construction sites, a stay would tend to make more sense. But here’s the catch: it shouldn’t be a long-term extension. A maximum of two more years or a transfer-free departure in 2023. With his identification and flexibility (6 or 8), a valuable squad member.
Conclusion: extension for one more year, early departure or departure free of charge in 2023.
Nico Schulz
No need for a detailed explanation here. The player is far too expensive for what he does.
Conclusion: A clear candidate for departure.
Emre Can
Individually, one of the best players in the squad, who can be an important part of the squad with his basic style of play and the variability he offers. The problem: Can currently stands for a lot of things that one no longer wants to see at BVB. Overconfidence, high error and failure rate and too expensive to maintain. If a buyer can be found, the saved salary and solid transfer fee would be more than welcome. A stay would be bearable with regard to the contract situation (until 2024) and the flexibility, such as his basic level. Ideally, however, the two would part ways.
Conclusion: Possible departure candidate
Thomas Meunier
A similar situation as with Emre Can. Basically, Meunier can give the team a lot, but he shows this too rarely. In general, I don’t see him as critically as the majority on Twitter, but I do see the framework data:
-Turns 31 this year
-Injury-prone
-Very high salary
-Not indispensable from a sporting point of view
With the vacancy on the RV market and the actually promising performances under Rose, Meunier would be a player I would keep. However, if you receive a lucrative offer, you should seriously consider it.
Conclusion: Tendency to keep him, but not indispensable.
Julian Brandt
Between genius and madness, but unfortunately still too often madness despite clear stabilisation. Inconsistency and a lack of determination in tackles are issues that have accompanied Julian Brandt throughout his career. Now, after a good season, would be the ideal time to “cash-out” for a good transfer fee.
Basically, however, he is a player who could be kept for another year from a sporting point of view, but who does not have to be. Marco Rose seems to see this a bit more clearly and showed it to Brandt by benching him five times in a row — despite an extremely thin personnel situation.
Conclusion: Staying would be bearable, but separation would be right
Thorgan Hazard
Too little dynamism, lacking difference factor, but sacrificial and flexible. As weak as Hazard’s season is and as little can actually be expected in the future: It might be difficult to get better, so flexible, squad players. But here we should ask ourselves the question: Do you need flexible, expensive squad players or quality? BVB needs quality. And unfortunately, Thorgan Hazard no longer has it. The lack of pace makes it increasingly difficult for him. At the age of 29, the player has also reached a crossroads, where injuries tend to pile up and his market value drops. Hazard is expendable, should have a market and brings some money. Similar to Brandt, a stay would be bearable, but separation would also be the solution that should clearly be sought.
Conclusion: Staying would be bearable, but separation would be the right thing to do.
Marius Wolf
Little difference factor, high salary, but a commendable work ethic and promising athleticism. Wolf fits Rose, even if he should play a quality class higher for his cost. It will take certain role players though, plus Wolf seems to be an important piece in the dressing room. Keeping Wolf would be the strongly preferred option as he could take over Thorgan Hazard’s flexible role player spot. However, with Wolf’s high salary and replaceability, a good offer would have to be discussed with Wolf, which he prefers. It is also possible that the contract could be extended by a year and the salary reduced. However, Wolf could contribute to the development of an identity.
Conclusion: Wolf to stay, but not unsellable
I think that the sales of Schulz, Guerreiro, Can, Brandt and Hazard can be realised. I would keep Meunier with a view to Morey, but he could just as easily be sold. Wolf as well as a flexible squad player. With the extremely thin midfield, Dahoud should either be extended by a year or risk losing him on a free transfer in 2023.
This is how the BVB squad could look with departures:
With regard to a 3–5–2, which I expect primarily next season, it would look like this:
Of course, individual positions can also be played elsewhere by the listed players. Nevertheless, when I look at such an arrangement, I find it striking how many strikers are available. With regard to the development of Moukoko and/or Fink, I would actually like to loan out one of the two. Since Moukoko has the higher quality for me and I trust him to perform regularly at Bundesliga level (fit) after full preparation, I would keep him. Fink should either be loaned out directly or rotate with Tigges in the U23/bench position after preparation. In view of Fink’s probable under-demand in the U23s in the medium term, but also the quality not yet available for regular appearances in the Bundesliga, Tigges should definitely stay as a role player for the time being . Moukoko could be out just as often. In addition, Tigges brings a different profile and many important character values.
However, a loan of Moukoko would be just as absolutely understandable, but, even without bias, not my favoured solution.
Definitions:
“Key players”: players who form the axis of the team and idR always start and can make the difference.
“Starting eleven qualities”: Players who you can easily play in the starting eleven without getting a queasy feeling.
“Rotation players”: Players who can come in if necessary, but who are expected to have a certain drop in performance compared to the alternatives in terms of quality.
“Perspective players”: Players who can be extremely fluctuating in their performances and are rather intended for the future.
This results in the following tasks for the summer transfer period:
A Priority:
Left defender, with starting eleven quality.
Variable player, who can play at best on LV and in central defence, with starting eleven qualities
Right-sided central defender who can play in a three- or four-man backline, rotation player
Defensive midfielder, with starting qualities
Central (defensive oriented) midfielder with starting qualities, who wins many balls
Haaland substitute (starting eleven)
B-Priority:
Strong dribbling offensive player (starting eleven)
Right wing player (starting eleven)
“Creator”/10th man, with starting/rotation qualities (rotation/starting eleven)
C-Priority:
A flexible “defensive anchor”, who can play on the 6 as well as centrally in the CB (rotation).
At best, you finally have (at least) the following constellation:
One key player on each “level”: (done)
10 further (field) regular players
6 rotation (field) players (at best two per level)
at least 3 talents with prospects (at least one per level)
Upward fluctuations are of course good, but not always advantageous. This would increase the fixed costs, reduce the deployment times for talents and make training more difficult.
Prospective players: Blue, Rotation players: Yellow, Regular players: Yellow, Key players: Purple
BVB currently has
8+1 perspective players
5+1 rotation players
7 regular players
3+1 key players
